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MOSCOW BLOG: Russia caught out by oil plunge

Did Russian President Vladimir Putin just screw up in a spectacular fashion? Russia pulled out of the OPEC+ production cut deal on March 6, setting off a downward spiralling of prices that ran out of control

UPDATED: Oil prices fall to less than zero for the first time in history

Oil prices fell to less than zero for the first time in history as producers ran out of places to store crude on April 20.

Assets of Azerbaijan’s wealth fund fall $2bn in defence of manat from pandemic, oil price upheaval

Baku has spent the past few years recovering from the previous collapse of hydrocarbon prices and building its financial firepower to fend off any repeat.

Russian utilities in a time of corona, first non-payments appear

Russian utilities are coming under pressure as customers are expected to start reneging on their bills and demand for power falls off heavily, as most of the country will be on a strict lockdown for all of April.

ALACO DISPATCHES: Europe struggling to salvage Iran nuclear deal

American sanctions leave Europe unable to offer Iran the economic support it demands for compliance.

Saudi public debt and sukuk in a time of COVID-19 and low oil prices

Saudi Arabia plans to expand its sukuk borrowing programme to cover the budget deficit caused by low oil prices

Iran and Turkey assure Azerbaijan they have not provided Nagorno-Karabakh or Armenians with COVID-19 relief

OPEC+ cuts deep into global supply, but not deep enough

Coronavirus, oil prices push Kazakhstan toward recession

Economy forecast to shrink by 0.9%.

Russia, Saudi Arabia agree to slash oil production, Trump claims

Donald Trump said on April 2 that Russia and Saudi Arabia would be cutting their output, instead of continuing with a supply war that could result in hundreds of oil companies going out of business. The Kremlin denied his claim.

OUTLOOK 2020/2021 Iran

Economically besieged Islamic Republic’s year looks set to hinge on whether tormentor-in-chief is re-elected.

Largest Turkish refiner Tupras ‘has cut runs at Izmir refinery by 50% due to pandemic impact on fuel demand’

Fitch cuts oil price outlook for 2020 from 62.5/bbl to $41/bbl on global recession fears

Fitch Ratings has cut its short and medium-term oil and natural gas price assumptions in expectation of very large market oversupply in 2020.

Russian pipemaker ChelPipe getting ready for IPO

With the predominance of oil and gas in Russia’s economy the pipe-making business is a big one. ChelPipe is the market leader and is now considering an IPO.

ContourGlobal abandons €1.3bn coal-fired power station project in Kosovo

Kosovo’s new Prime Minister Albin Kurti had pledged to stop the 500MW power plant that would have been Kosovo’s largest ever energy investment.

Ukraine's new cabinet offers voluntary tariff cuts for renewables, but ready to go to court in disputes

Ukraine’s new cabinet shocked investors by threatening to cut generous “green tariff” arrangements retroactively for renewable energy developers. This may prompt a raft of lawsuits from irate investors.

Erdogan tells Putin let’s jointly manage Syria oil fields instead of “terrorists” exploiting them

ING: Russia bracing for oil shock: initial thoughts

The Russian market is facing volatility, with large fiscal reserves and high real rates coming back into investors' focus, but only after the oil- and corona-related dust settles.

Oil price shock sparks rapid revision of budget in Kazakhstan

Country’s budget based on oil at $50-$55 per barrel compared to $31 caused by failure of OPEC+ talks. Situation could eat up government reserves. Some Kazakhs enter into panic buying of dollars. Central bank hikes key rate 275bp.

Borsa Istanbul loses 5.5% in global stock market meltdown

Shares in tourism firms fall 10% as market jitters grow over coronavirus impact on Turkey’s big tourism industry, even though country claims to have no recorded COVID-19 infections.

The ruble's value tumbles in Russia's game of geopolitical chicken

The value of the Russia ruble plummeted in the evening of March 8 as trading began, following the price of oil into the chasm created by an oil price war that has broken out between Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Europe’s plan to introduce a carbon import tax is forcing Russia to go green

Europe wants to be carbon neutral by 2050, and is about to introduce a carbon import duty that is already forcing Russia’s biggest companies to speed up their efforts to go green.

OPEC+ talks with Russia collapse, oil prices tank

Talks between OPEC and Russia on a new production cut collapsed on March 6, sending oil prices tumbling to under $50. The Kremlin says it is “comfortable” with the current price and has started a price war designed to undermine the US.

MACRO ADVISOR: Oil War: Who will blink first?

When Russia refused to back Saudi Arabia’s proposal for a deeper oil production cut in Vienna on March 6, it effectively fired the first shot in what looks like being an expensive and prolonged oil price war.

ING: The OPEC+ break-up: It’s not you, it’s me

OPEC+ knew they had to surprise the market, and that is what they did. Although the surprise was failing to come to a deal, rather than cutting more than expected. $30 oil here we come...