US Department of Energy predicts 8% slide in Brent price in 2025

The US Department of Energy (DoE) expects Brent crude oil prices to decline to an average of $74 per barrel in 2025, an 8% drop from 2024 levels, and to fall further to $66 per barrel in 2026, driven by rising global oil stocks, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The EIA's latest report forecasts global oil production to outpace demand for petroleum products, exerting downward pressure on prices over the next two years. Supply growth is projected to exceed demand growth by 0.5mn barrels per day in 2025 and by 0.4mn bpd in 2026. Additionally, global commercial oil inventories are expected to grow by 0.3mn bpd in 2025 and by 0.7mn bpd in 2026.
These supply-demand dynamics are anticipated to result in an 8% decline in Brent prices in 2025, followed by an 11% decrease in 2026, the report noted.
For West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the EIA projects average prices of $70.31 per barrel in 2025 and $62.46 per barrel in 2026, reflecting a similar downward trend.
The forecast underscores the impact of increasing supply on global oil markets, despite continued growth in demand for petroleum products. Rising inventories and the expansion of production capacities are key contributors to the anticipated price declines, highlighting a shift in market dynamics over the medium term.
Analysts surveyed by Argus Media have adjusted their expectations downward this month, with the projection for Brent in 2025 averaging $76.88 per barrel, more than $6.30 below previous estimates. Similarly, WTI is expected to average $72.13 per barrel, a reduction of $6 from earlier forecasts.
The World Bank notably forecast last November that Brent would drop to a four-year low of $73 in 2025, warning that one of the biggest gluts in supply in history would emerge, amounting to 1.2mn bpd. The World Bank pointed to flatlining demand in China since last year as a result of an industrial slowdown and increased sales of electric vehicles (EVs) and trucks powered by LNG.
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